Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
