Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
