Just two months in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
